The effects of weather and climate change on cycling in northern Norway

  • Terje Andreas Mathisen University of Nordland
  • Jan Anne Annema Delft University of Technology
  • Maarten Kroesen Delft University of Technology

Abstract

Weather is identified as one of many factors that influence the demand for cycling. Weather patterns will change due to expected climate change. The aim of this article is to study the extent to which climate change influences the cycling frequency. The analysis in this article is conducted using an econometric model based on data spanning over four years on weather indicators and the cycling frequency in the Norwegian city of Bodø, which is located north of the Arctic Circle. According to the projections for climate change, both temperature and quantity of precipitation are expected to increase in this area during the next century. An important consequence of changes in the climate in the studied region is the reduced duration of what can be characterised as the winter season. However, this consequence is highly uncertain. When using Norway’s middle projections for climate change by 2050, the analysis shows a moderate increase in cycling frequency of 6.2%. For the reduced winter period, the cycle rate might be two and three times higher in 2050 compared to the current level. Both estimates assume that every other potential impact on cycling rates remain equal.

How to Cite
MATHISEN, Terje Andreas; ANNEMA, Jan Anne; KROESEN, Maarten. The effects of weather and climate change on cycling in northern Norway. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, [S.l.], v. 15, n. 2, apr. 2015. ISSN 1567-7141. Available at: <https://journals.library.tudelft.nl/index.php/ejtir/article/view/3072>. Date accessed: 22 mar. 2019. doi: https://doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2015.15.2.3072.
Published
2015-04-01